The Orioles' 2025 season was a disaster, and the team's struggles with homegrown players, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, are at the heart of the issue. With a .152/.218/.283 line for Mayo and a .179/.282/.209 line for Cowser, the team's patience is being tested. The question is, are these players simply victims of bad luck, or is there a deeper problem?
As prospects, Cowser and Mayo showed immense potential, crushing minor league pitching with their raw power and bat speed. However, the transition to the MLB has been a challenge. Cowser, a first-round pick in 2021, had a breakout season in 2024, but injuries and a lack of consistency have hindered his progress. Mayo, signed for $1.75 million, has struggled with his position at third base and has yet to find his rhythm at the MLB level.
The issue lies in the margin for error at the major league level. Cowser's weakness against breaking balls and Mayo's struggle with contact on offspeed pitches are evident. Peripheral data, such as wOBA and BABip, suggests that Cowser is performing as expected, but Mayo's numbers indicate a significant disparity between actual and expected performance. This suggests that Mayo's struggles may be due to bad luck rather than a fundamental flaw.
The team's overall strikeout-prone nature adds another layer of complexity. With a high strikeout rate, the Orioles may be facing an approach problem rather than an individual player's issue. Cowser and Mayo's strikeout rates are comparable to other players on the team, indicating that the issue might be more widespread.
Despite the challenges, the Orioles are giving these young players a chance. The team's patience is understandable, given the lack of realistic options at certain positions. However, the pressure is on to see results. If Mayo and Cowser continue to struggle, the team may need to consider other options, but for now, they are giving them the benefit of the doubt.
In conclusion, the Orioles' patience with Cowser and Mayo is a testament to their commitment to developing homegrown talent. While the future is uncertain, the team's strategy of giving these players time and opportunity is a wise one. The ultimate test will be whether their patience pays off or if they need to make a change.
